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Goldman Sachs has raised its U.S. recession probability from 20% to 35%, reflecting a significant shift in economic outlook, now incorporating a "stagflationary twist." The firm projects inflation to reach 3.5% in 2025 and GDP growth to slow to 1.0%. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming tariff announcements and key economic reports.
Goldman Sachs warns that President Trump's upcoming tariff rates could be significantly higher than market expectations, potentially reaching 15%–20%. This strategy may mirror past tactics where initial steep tariffs were later moderated. The administration's approach could shock investors, especially as it reviews 19 countries for a reciprocal tariff framework that accounts for various economic factors.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3% annualized growth for the S&P 500 over the next decade, but expert Seth Golden argues that this prediction lacks a reliable connection between price-to-earnings ratios and actual returns. Goldman’s model suggests that equity returns will be influenced by factors like starting valuations and economic conditions, indicating a potential underperformance against bonds and inflation. The S&P 500 has seen a year-to-date decline of 1.72%, while the Nasdaq 100 is down 3.79%.
On March 18, 2025, Barclays downgraded PepsiCo's outlook from Overweight to Equal-Weight. The average one-year price target for the company is €159.90, suggesting a 15.24% upside from its latest closing price of €138.76. Institutional ownership has increased by 5.92% over the last three months, with notable changes in portfolio allocations among major funds.
Scott Bessent, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump as Treasury Secretary, disclosed a stake of up to $500,000 in Bitcoin ETFs, specifically BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Following his Senate confirmation, he plans to resign from Key Square Group and divest his investments, although there are conflicting reports about whether he will liquidate his Bitcoin holdings. Bessent's total disclosed assets are estimated at around $521 million, including various investments and properties.
Palantir Technologies emerged as the top-performing AI stock in 2024, soaring 350%, but investors are advised to consider the Invesco QQQ Trust for broader exposure to leading tech stocks. With a strong historical performance and a focus on influential AI companies, QQQ is positioned for continued growth in 2025 and beyond.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs faced significant outflows of $226.56 million on December 23, with Fidelity’s FBTC losing $145.97 million, while ethereum ETFs enjoyed a $130.76 million inflow, led by Blackrock’s ETHA with $89.51 million. Despite the losses, bitcoin funds still hold $105.08 billion in BTC, while ethereum funds have $12.05 billion in ether reserves.
Bitcoin ETFs faced over $1 billion in outflows ahead of Christmas, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading the decline at $146 million. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs saw a surge of $130.8 million in inflows, primarily driven by BlackRock’s ETHA. Despite recent sell-offs, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $35.83 billion since launch, while Ethereum ETFs have reached $2.46 billion in inflows.
MicroStrategy shareholders will vote in 2025 on proposals to increase authorized common stock to 10.3 billion shares and amend the equity incentive plan, supporting the company's Bitcoin strategy. The meeting will also address procedural changes for board directors and the company's ambitious goal to raise $42 billion for future Bitcoin acquisitions. Since its announcement, MicroStrategy has acquired approximately 192,042 BTC, achieving 42% of its investment target in under two months.
Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant outflows, shedding $1.17 billion over three days as institutional investors react to a market correction, with Bitcoin's price dropping over 14% from its recent high. Despite this, total inflows for these products remain strong at $35.8 billion. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETFs saw inflows of $130.8 million, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, while altcoins like Binance Coin and Avalanche showed resilience with gains exceeding 4%.
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Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Risk Amid Stagflation Concerns and Tariff Uncertainty
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06:00 31.03.2025
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17:04 24.12.2024
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08:45 24.12.2024
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